Storm Clouds 暴风雨云
George Yeo Yong-Boon ( 杨荣文 ) had been a senior Minister in the Singapore Parliament and had taken on various leading portfolios like the Foreign Ministry (2004 - 2011), Health Ministry (1994 - 1997), Trade and Industry (1999 - 2004), and Ministry of Art and Information (1990 - 1999). After retiring from politics in 2011, George Yeo ( 杨荣文 ) joined the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy as a visiting scholar and he was also involved in reviving the ancient Buddhist Nalanda university in India, being the University’s Chancellor. Later, he moved to the private sector in Hong Kong joining the Kuok Group as Senior Advisor, and the vice chairman of its subsidiary Kerry Group (HK) Pte Ltd. George Yeo ( 杨荣文 ) is currently a member of the Foundation Board of the World Economic and he takes on the advisory roles in Singapore of the Sun Yat Sen Nanyang Memorial Hall, the Teochew Poit Ip Huay Kuan and the Lassalle College of Arts.
George Yeo Yong-Boon ( 杨荣文 ) 曾担任新加坡议会高级部长，曾担任多个重要职务，如外交部 (2004 - 2011)、卫生部 (1994 - 1997)、贸易和工业 (1999 - 2004)和艺术和信息部 (1990 - 1999)。 2011年从政坛退休后，杨荣文以访问学者身份加入李光耀公共政策学院，并参与了印度古老佛教那烂陀大学的复兴工作，担任该校校长。其后转入香港私营机构，加入郭氏集团担任高级顾问，其子公司嘉里集团（香港）私人有限公司副董事长杨荣文现为世界基金会董事会成员经济方面，他在新加坡的孙中山南洋纪念堂、潮州叶会馆和拉萨尔艺术学院担任顾问。
Here in the video, https://youtu.be/aNFwae0wXCQ (Click to watch and listen), recorded life on 13th July 2022, George Yeo ( 杨荣文 ) shared his view on key aspects about the ever-growing complexities of international relations and arising challenges that policymakers face today. With great wit and candour, he offered insights about the strategic importance of ASEAN nations, the unique potential that Indonesia has, and China’s reaction to growing US hostility.
在视频 https://youtu.be/aNFwae0wXCQ（点击观看并收听）中，记录了 2022 年 7 月 13 日的生活，George Yeo（杨荣文）分享了他对国际关系日益复杂的关键方面的看法，以及政策制定者今天面临的新挑战。他以极大的智慧和坦率，就东盟国家的战略重要性、印度尼西亚的独特潜力以及中国对美国日益增长的敌意的反应提出了见解。
This talk entitled “Storm Clouds” is of interest to us if we want to form an opinion as to whether the present conflict that USA has with China will eventually escalate into another World War. Here are some excerpts from his talk that are worth keeping in our minds:
如果我们想就当前美国与中国的冲突是否最终会升级为另一场世界大战形成意见，我们对这个题为“风暴云”的演讲很感兴趣。以下是他演讲的一些摘录，值得我们牢记：
Excerpt # 1: “Today we are in the Great transition in the world and many things may happen in this process of the overall giving birth to a new world. This transition will last over many years and we are now living through it. There are many dangers which is why I titled my talk today as ‘storm clouds’. ” George Yeo ( 杨荣文 ) starts with this cautionary remark for us to note - that a new world is currently being born, a new birth pain that we have to undergo for a good number of years.
摘录＃1：“今天我们正处于世界的大转变中，在这个整体诞生一个新世界的过程中可能会发生很多事情。这个转变将持续很多年，我们现在正在经历它。有许多危险，这就是为什么我今天把我的演讲命名为‘暴风雨云’。” George Yeo ( 杨荣文 ) 以这句话开始，让我们注意到——一个新的世界正在诞生，一个我们必须经历的新的分娩痛苦好几年了。
Excerpt # 2: On Ukraine War: “When Putin came into power, he saw what had happened to the former Soviet Union and he started to fight back. He knew that in these matters, Russia could not compete on the basis of the economy because its population is too small, but in weaponry it had the technology. So Russia invested in new weapons and the Ukraine war to me marks the linen of the flow of the western tide eastwards and now we are seeing an inter-tidal period which may go on for many years. I don’t see either side sitting down and hammering out a peace agreement because to concede Putin’s minimum demands will be defeat for the rest and for putting to agree to the West minimum demands must mean that he has done all this for nothing. He has crossed the Rubicon and has expanded enormous treasures and bearing a very heavy cost. So we may we may well see in Ukraine a situation similar to the Korean Peninsula and in Cyprus where at some point in time, a ceasefire line will be drawn - a de facto partition which may last decades, like that between North and South Korea and in Cyprus with one part joining the EU the other part more Russian speaking being absorbed in the Russian sphere.”
Here, George Yeo ( 杨荣文 ) gives us his views on the current Ukraine War. Because Ukraine and Russia together have provided the world with huge amounts of petroleum products, chemicals, and grains like barley, corn and wheat, the war means that the supply of these items is now restricted. The prices of all commodities throughout the world will rise. Inflations will be rampant. He sees a long battle ahead as both sides refuse to have any settlement talk. Eventually, he believes that Ukraine will be divided up into at least two political parts - one on the NATO side and the other on the Russian side.
摘录#2：关于乌克兰战争：“普京上台后，看到前苏联发生了什么事，开始反击。他知道在这些事情上，俄罗斯无法在经济基础上竞争，因为它的人口太少，但在武器方面它有技术。所以俄罗斯投资了新武器，乌克兰战争对我来说标志着西潮东流的亚麻布，现在我们看到了一个可能会过去的潮间期多年来。我不认为任何一方坐下来敲定和平协议，因为承认普京的最低要求将被其他人击败，而同意西方的最低要求必须意味着他已经完成了这一切不劳而获。他越过了卢比孔河，扩张了巨大的宝藏，付出了沉重的代价。所以我们很可能会在乌克兰看到类似朝鲜半岛和塞浦路斯的情况，在某个时间点，停火线将被绘制 - 一个可能持续数十年的事实上的分裂，就像朝鲜和韩国之间以及塞浦路斯之间的分裂一样，一部分加入欧盟，另一部分则更多的说俄语的人被吸收在俄罗斯范围内。” 在这里，George Yeo ( 杨荣文 ) 为我们讲述了他对当前乌克兰战争的看法。由于乌克兰和俄罗斯共同为世界提供了大量的石油产品、化学品和大麦、玉米和小麦等谷物，战争意味着这些物品的供应现在受到限制。全世界所有商品的价格都会上涨。通货膨胀将猖獗。由于双方都拒绝进行任何和解谈判，他认为未来会有一场漫长的战斗。最终，他认为乌克兰将至少分裂成两个政治部分——一个在北约一方，另一个在俄罗斯一方。
Excerpt # 3: On China: “Then we have on the other side the rise of China which is creating a great sense of insecurity in the western world and particularly in the Anglo-Saxon world. It used to be that the five eyes were a very discreet, quiet intelligence agreement. We never heard about that but Snowden told us about prism that our eyes were then opened to this kind of capabilities which they (the West) had while we started moving into what for them used to be a domain completely accessible to them. Xi Jinping, the President of China, sees that the five-eye countries as a threat to China and consults with Cui Tiankai (Chinese: 崔天凯) who had served as the longest-serving Chinese Ambassador to the United States, from April 2013 to June 2021. Last December he (Cui Tiankai) gave a speech where he said America’s ill-will for China has no bottom line and underlying it is racism. China should be very careful. China should not lose what it has painfully gained over the years, by rash action. He said ‘never fight a war you cannot win’ and ‘never fight a protracted war.’ China is very dependent on strategic submarines which is why the South China Sea is so important. ”
摘录#3：关于中国：“另一方面，中国的崛起正在西方世界，特别是盎格鲁-撒克逊世界制造一种巨大的不安全感。过去，五只眼睛是一个非常谨慎，安静的情报协议。我们从未听说过，但斯诺登告诉我们关于棱镜的事情，当我们开始完全进入他们曾经完全属于的领域时，我们的眼睛开始看到他们（西方）所拥有的这种能力中国国家主席习近平将五眼国家视为对中国的威胁，并与曾担任中国驻美大使时间最长的崔天凯. 进行磋商。 2013年4月至2021年6月。去年12月，他（崔天凯）发表讲话，他说美国对中国的恶意是没有底线的，背后是种族主义。中国应该非常小心，中国不应该失去它痛苦的收获多年来，由 rash ac化。他说，“永远不要打一场你赢不了的战争”，“永远不要打持久战”. "
Excerpt # 4: On Nuclear War: “There are three main domains of warfare which I think China is worried about. One is of course nuclear warfare. China says it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons so it must have a deterrent capability. The U.S. has been quite determined to deny China’s Counter-Strike capability because if it’s just conventional Warfare repeated scenario War gaming shows that in a conventional War around Taiwan and the South China Sea, America cannot prevail. So they must be able to threaten nuclear weapons but if China can threaten back then that threat is blunted.”
摘录#4：关于核战争：“我认为中国主要担心三个战争领域。一个当然是核战争。中国说它不会首先使用核武器，因此它必须具有威慑能力. 美国一直坚决否认中国的反恐能力，因为如果只是常规战争重复场景战争游戏表明，在台湾和南中国海的常规战争中，美国无法获胜。所以他们必须能够威胁核武器，但如果中国能在那时威胁到，那么这种威胁就会减弱。中国非常依赖战略潜艇，这就是南海如此重要的原因。”
Excerpt # 5: On Outer Space: ” The second area where they worry about is cyberspace and there the fight will be from outer space to the Underground. Today the Americans will not agree to Singtel to link a cable to America near the China Coast. The link must go through the Java Sea in between Solawesi and Kalimantan and from there straight across the Pacific. They assume that the Chinese can tap undersea cables and the Chinese side has better internal satellites and communication facilities. NASA has said that China wants to take over the moon and the Chinese space program is making rapid progress which troubles the Americans enormously.”
摘录#5：关于外层空间：“他们担心的第二个领域是网络空间，那里的战斗将从外层空间到地下。今天美国人不会同意新加坡电信在中国海岸附近将电缆连接到美国。这条线路必须通过索拉威西岛和加里曼丹岛之间的爪哇海，然后从那里直接穿过太平洋。他们认为中国可以利用海底电缆，并且中国方面拥有更好的内部卫星和通信设施。美国宇航局表示，中国希望采取在月球上空，中国的太空计划正在迅速取得进展，这给美国人带来了极大的困扰。”
Excerpt # 6: On Asean: “The anti-China sentiments in America today are bipartisan and profound. Even if the Republicans win the elections, they will still be anti-China sentiments. And, the Deep State meaning the security intelligence agencies and defence are committed on a multi-year program to fight China. So it’s not going to change just because the president has changed. So in the short term because America needs to lower tariffs in order to reduce the tax on its own population to reduce inflation, it needs China to do some face-saving concessions. For this to go through there is a need to talk. So in the coming months we will see improvement in China - U.S relations but as a longer term proposition, I don’t think the position has changed. So we in Singapore, we in Asean, are all caught in between. Singapore is very reliant on the U.S. for Weaponry and for the financial system. We don’t want to choose. Our best bet is to have Asean because if it’s just us it’s very uncomfortable. But if it is Asean together, we can be comfortable.”
摘录＃6：在东盟上：“当今美国的反中国情绪是两党和深刻的。即使共和党人赢得了选举，他们仍然是反中国情绪。而且，深层国家意味着安全情报机构和国防机构和辩护人致力于一项多年计划来对抗中国。所以它不会因为总统换了就改变。所以在短期内，因为美国需要降低关税以减少对本国人口的税收以降低通货膨胀，它需要中国做一些面子让步。要做到这一点，需要谈判。所以在接下来的几个月中，我们将看到中美关系有所改善，但作为一个长期主张，我不认为立场已经改变。所以我们在新加坡，我们在东盟，都夹在两者之间。新加坡在武器和金融体系方面非常依赖美国。我们不想选择。我们最好的选择是拥有东盟，因为如果只有我们，那就太不正常了舒服。但如果是东盟在一起，我们会很舒服。”
10 Cultural Differences Between China and the US : 26 Feb / 2019 | By TMA World https://www.tmaworld.com/2019/02/26/10-cultural-differences-between-china-and-us/
- Chinese society is all about the group, while Americans celebrate the individual. The United States is a meritocracy in which individuals can shine, while in China, any success is regarded as a success for the company, or the family, or the team. A Chinese person will consider how their actions may affect the group as a whole rather than looking out only for themselves.
- Hierarchy is important to the Chinese and respect will be shown to those higher up in the structure. American companies tend to have much flatter structures, with workers at all levels having access to those at the top. In China, a worker low down the pay scale would not expect to have direct contact with their superiors. Everybody knows their place in the structure and abides by the rules that come with it.
- Conversation in China can feel somewhat direct to Americans. Even though Americans like to place people in context in the search for common ground, small talk about age, income and marital status, all favoured by the Chinese, can feel intrusive and overly personal to an American. Having said this, Chinese visitors to the United States can find the language and tone used in American workplaces rude and uncomfortable. Thinking before you speak is important to the Chinese, as is showing respect for those higher in the hierarchy. Communication style is indirect and Americans doing business with Chinese counterparts will need to learn to read between the lines.
中美之间的 10 大文化差异：2019 年 2 月 26 日 |作者：TMA World https://www.tmaworld.com/2019/02/26/10-culture-differences-between-china-and-us/ 最终，中国人和美国人会发现他们的相似之处多于文化差异。人们的动机是相同的：舒适、金钱、养家糊口、工作满意度和安全感。但每种文化都通过不同的途径达到这些目标，而且在表面上，有时看起来可能是天壤之别。了解人们为什么要按照自己的方式行事，对于成功的跨文化交流大有帮助。 等级制度对中国人来说很重要，对更高层的人会表现出尊重。美国公司的结构往往更扁平，各级员工都可以接触到高层。在中国，工资水平较低的工人不会期望与他们的上级直接接触。每个人都知道自己在结构中的位置，并遵守随之而来的规则。 在中国的对话对美国人来说可能有点直接。尽管美国人喜欢将人们置于寻找共同点的背景中，但中国人喜欢谈论年龄、收入和婚姻状况的闲谈，可能会让美国人感到侵扰和过于个人化。话虽如此，来美国的中国游客会觉得美国工作场所使用的语言和语气粗鲁而不舒服。对中国人来说，说话前思考很重要，尊重等级较高的人也很重要。沟通方式是间接的，与中国同行做生意的美国人需要学会在字里行间。
4. China treats its seniors in a different way to Americans. Elders are held in great respect and treated as such, both in business and socially. Many families live with several generations under one roof. Even the dead are honoured. Americans, on the other hand, expect their offspring to be independent. The older generation can live hundreds of miles away from their children and isolation of old people is a social issue. The American workplace can seem ageist to older people, too, as youth culture is celebrated.
5. Chinese people are inclined to foster deeper friendships than Americans. They may see Americans as initially gregarious but difficult to get to know in a deeper context. A friend in China is someone to whom you feel deeply obligated and for whom you will do favors when necessary. This translates into business, where the Chinese will try to forge relationships and connections, known as guanxi. Trust is essential before doing business. Colleagues tend to socialize together as part of relationship building and business entertainment is lavish. Americans, on the other hand, tend to keep work and personal life separate.
6. Chinese in urban areas are used to a lack of personal space. Cities are densely populated, polluted and crowded, especially on public transport. Americans are more accustomed to physical space and will become territorial if they feel crowded, snapping at people who push in line and staking out little kingdoms for themselves, whether it’s their car, desk or aeroplane seat.
7. Americans see freedom of speech and access to information as a right. China has heavy censorship of media and of the internet. Social media networks that Americans take for granted, like Instagram, YouTube and Facebook are not accessible in China, while many Western newspapers are blocked online. In Chinese companies, information is shared on a need-to-know basis, rarely filtering down from the top, while American corporate culture is generally much more open, with considerable effort being made to embrace transparency.
中国对待老年人的方式与美国人不同。长者在商业和社会上都受到极大的尊重和对待。许多家庭几代人生活在一个屋檐下。连死去的人都值得尊敬。另一方面，美国人希望他们的后代能够独立。老一辈人可以住在离他们的孩子数百英里的地方，老人与世隔绝是一个社会问题。美国的工作场所对老年人来说似乎也是年龄歧视，因为青年文化受到了庆祝。 中国人比美国人更倾向于培养更深厚的友谊。他们可能认为美国人最初是合群的，但在更深层次的背景下很难了解。在中国的朋友是你对他深有责任感，必要时你会为他提供帮助的人。这转化为商业，中国人将尝试建立关系和联系，称为关系。在开展业务之前，信任是必不可少的。作为建立关系的一部分，同事倾向于一起社交，而商务娱乐是奢侈的。另一方面，美国人倾向于将工作和个人生活分开。 城市地区的中国人已经习惯了缺乏个人空间。城市人口稠密、污染严重、拥挤不堪，尤其是在公共交通上。美国人更习惯于物理空间，如果他们感到拥挤，他们就会变得有领土意识，会攻击那些排着长队的人，并为自己设立小王国，无论是他们的汽车、办公桌还是飞机座位。 美国人将言论自由和获取信息的自由视为一项权利。中国对媒体和互联网实行严格审查。美国人认为理所当然的社交媒体网络，如 Instagram、YouTube 和 Facebook，在中国无法访问，而许多西方报纸在网上被屏蔽。在中国公司，信息是在需要知道的基础上共享的，很少从上层过滤掉，而美国的企业文化通常更加开放，并为实现透明度做出了相当大的努力。
8. Chinese people will avoid confrontation wherever possible with a view to saving face. Shouting at someone causes both parties to lose face and if face is lost in business, a relationship can be permanently damaged. As such, Chinese executives will often avoid giving a straight answer in order to save the other person’s face. Americans, who tend to be very direct and literal, can find this confusing and frustrating. The worst thing you can do in negotiations with Chinese colleagues is to go out of your way to prove a point, regardless of the effect it has on others. But to Americans, the end result is more important than reputation or even the relationships.
9. In China, humility is revered and people tend to downplay their achievements. America is almost the exact opposite; in a meritocracy, you need to make the most of yourself and let people know about your successes. The Chinese can see this as crass and boastful, while in the United States, humility can be regarded as a sign of weakness.
10. Business in the United States moves at a different pace from China. Americans focus on speed and efficiency and will hurry to get things done quickly. Time is money, in other words. People are expected to turn up on time for meetings and to meet deadlines. The Chinese, on the other hand, can be slow decision makers, preferring to build consensus and foster relationships before plunging into anything. Deadlines may only be met when the time is right and the project is considered complete. Americans can find this attitude to punctuality frustrating and time-wasting, while in negotiations, the Chinese will take advantage of the American need for speed, playing a waiting game to secure a better deal for themselves.
为了面子，中国人会尽量避免对抗。对某人大喊大叫会使双方都丢脸，如果在生意上丢脸，关系可能会永久受损。因此，中国高管通常会避免直接回答，以挽回对方的面子。美国人往往非常直接和直截了当，他们会觉得这令人困惑和沮丧。在与中国同事的谈判中，你能做的最糟糕的事情就是竭尽全力证明一个观点，而不考虑它对他人的影响。但对美国人来说，最终结果比声誉甚至关系更重要。 在中国，人们崇尚谦逊，人们往往轻描淡写自己的成就。美国几乎完全相反。在精英管理中，你需要充分发挥自己的作用，让人们知道你的成功。中国人认为这是粗鲁和自夸，而在美国，谦逊可以视为软弱的标志。 美国业务的发展速度与中国不同。美国人注重速度和效率，会急于把事情做完。换句话说，时间就是金钱。人们应该准时出席会议并在最后期限内完成。另一方面，中国人可能是缓慢的决策者，他们更愿意在投入任何事情之前建立共识并培养关系。只有在时间合适并且项目被认为完成时才能满足最后期限。美国人会发现这种守时态度令人沮丧和浪费时间，而在谈判中，中国人会利用美国人对速度的需求，玩等待游戏来为自己争取到更好的交易。
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